MLB Teams Most Likely to Win the 2022 World Series According to Advanced Metrics
MLB Teams Most Likely to Win the 2022 World Series According to Advanced Metrics

MLB Teams Most Likely to Win the 2022 World Series According to Advanced Metrics

With more than half of the 2022 MLB season officially in the books, it seems like a great idea to bet on the World Series race. But where many tend to use gut feelings, the eye test, and the latest hot streaks, among other things, we go a different route.

Our World Series rankings will look to identify the most likely championship winners by analyzing advanced metrics. Specifically, we’ll be using Baseball Reference’s Simple Rating System, also known as SRS. This metric weighs both a team’s strength of schedule and run differential to come up with a single number meant to capture its position relative to the rest of the league.

Some will scoff at reducing the World Series race to a single value. This is not meant to be the end. It’s more of a “Hey, look at this!” Also: This is unusual. Advanced values ​​are used primarily by the best MLB betting sites to determine the future of the championship and game lines. And if they’re good enough for the top experts in the sports industry, they’re good enough for us.

However, in an effort to crunch the numbers, we’ll run through our own analysis for each team. Our guiding question: Are we buying Team X with such a high position on the 2022 World Series ladder?

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All SRS scores will be noted in parentheses and are correct entering the games on July 28, 2022. Now, let’s get to it!

  1. New York Yankees (2.1)

“The Aaron Judge of the Yankees flies out in the seventhis licensed under CC BY 2.0

It’s kind of hard not to buy the New York Yankees as World Series favorites right now. Their offense is capital LEGENDARY.

Led by American League MVP candidate Aaron Judge, the Yankees lead major league baseball in slugging percentage (.444) and total home runs (168) by a monstrous margin. Their plus-196 differential also happens to be the best in the field – nearly 20 runs over second place.

Skeptics will be worried about the Yankees pitching ahead of the postseason. A recent injury to slugger Giancarlo Stanton is not convenient either. But New York’s offensive depth is generational right now.

They have earned this top billing.

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5)

This is a little surprise. Many, in fact, might have the Los Angeles Dodgers at No. 1.

Although their offense got off to a light start, exacerbated in part by Mookie Betts’ early struggles, the Dodgers have long recovered. Los Angeles now owns the best on-base plus slugging percentage in the game by an almost comically wide margin.

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On top of all that, the Dodgers are almost universally considered to have the best pitching staff in baseball. As of this writing, their starters and relievers combine for a 2.98 ERA – making them the only active staff to post an ERA south of three.

  1. Houston Astros (1.1)

This is where we start to veer into speculative territory.

Almost everyone agrees that the Yankees and Dodgers are the biggest World Series threats this season. Everything is a blur after that. The Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets and others all received consideration to take the No. 3 spot.

Baseball Reference’s SRS gives the Houston Astros the nod, though just barely.

While Houston struggled out of the gate, they turned things around. Most will automatically assume their offense has finally succeeded if they haven’t followed up. That’s just not the case.

The Astros’ pitching staff saved their season more than anything. Only the Dodgers post a stingier ERA, and the .212 they’re allowing opponents to hit is the league’s lowest mark by a pretty substantial margin.

  1. Toronto Blue Jays (0.9)

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To be honest, the Toronto Blue Jays’ position in this race feels inflated. We are talking about a team that ranked fourth in its own division not long ago.

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Toronto has been more consistent on both ends of the court recently. But we also think their SRS score gets a 28-run lead from the Boston Red Sox last week.

No, we’re not saying the Blue Jays are incapable of winning the World Series. We just need them to sustain this current performance for a bit longer before making the statement.

  1. New York Mets (0.8)

Advanced metrics like SRS don’t love the Mets as much as they used to. This team was uniquely humiliated.

After extending their lead in the NL East to over 10 games, the Mets saw the defending champion Atlanta Braves close to within 1.5 games.

July in particular was not kind to New York. They struggled to play .500 baseball and saw their bats go through the mother of all slumps.

On the bright side, the Mets roster is rich with promising hitters and pitchers, so this should be a temporary route. But it’s not a bad idea to start weighing other options, like the Padres or Braves, before they move on.

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